Dendreon ($DNDN) : Gets whacked based on a competitors Good News

Dendreon is off from its recent high when sales guidance looked a bit soft and the stock is down again today, this time on news in the competitive landscape of prostate cancer that competitive product, JNJ's Zytiga data must be strong.

As one analyst wrote in their institutional blog, "What Happened ?  JNJ had news out that the Phase 3 trial for Zytiga in patients treated (prior to chemotherapy) was unblinded based on the unanimous recommendation of the independent data monitoring committee (IDMC). This is an unusually positive move for an IDMC to make !

This decision was driven from results of the planned interim analysis of the data which included the primary endpoints Overall Survival and Progression Free Survival.  The IMDC went one additional step to recommend that patients in the control (placebo arm) be treated with Zytiga.

So the data must be great for the trial to be stopped early. This means that the market opportunity for Provenge just got smaller.  Why ? Provenge is going after a similar marketplace, pre-chemo exposed prostate cancer men that are asymptomatic.  So clearly Zytigia cuts into the Provenge patient population pool.

Daily Dose Conclusion: Given the two recent negatives that hive hit Dendreon we back away from our positive bias and would step back and see where DNDN stabilizes before jumping into the story.