Which Cell Therapy companies present the best value?

Which Cell Therapy companies present the best value?

We developed an analysis using public filings and annualizing the most recent quarters as of 12/31/11. As such, the accuracy is subjective to our proprietary algorithm, and this list is not mean to be all comprehensive.

We conclude that ex leaders Dendreon and MesoBlast make the space very inexpensive. The sample below represents just over $500 million in market cap for eight of the selected public companies (ex DNDN and MSB). These companies have 3 - PIII trials, 5 PII trials and several P1 trials (based on these crude metrics).

We conclude that is worth investors time to understand among these companies in terms of what they are doing and the associated probabilities of success of their trials. Recent data peaks from the Cardiology space suggests that Baxter (BAX) and their CD34 cell type may be very viable. NeoStem has a very similar approach. The retrenchment in MesoBlast shares since that company presented data at AHA in November is of concern. Cytori, Aastrom, Athersys all have active programs in cardiology while Athersys lead program is partnered with Pfizer for Ulcerative Colitis and Aastrom is entering a Phase 3 trial in CLI.

By price ($), Osiris, MesoBlast, and Dendreon are the highest $ priced stocks:

But that starts to change as we migrate to market cap:

And if we eliminate Mesoblast and Dendreon we get a better picture of the rest of the field:

And that picture changes as we adjust for debt and cash: (enterprise value). In all fairness here, we know that NeoStem with $20-$30 million in value from their China generic company, could be the cheapest name and others are / will raise capital but ex China, Athersys is the “cheapest name”.

Looking at R&D spending: IMUC, Prima and NeoStem are among the most efficient but in fairness one must adjust for the fact that Aastrom is embarking on a pivotal trial versus Prima just starting their P3 and NeoStem their P2.

Revenues: Here we have excluded NeoStem’s $65 million from China which means PCT (Cell Therapy CMO) is running at close to $10 million in annual revenues (currently).

Cell Therapy - Oncothyreon ($ONTY) presents data, Prima BioMed update

A few news events over the last 24 hours caught our attention and in effort to connect the dots we are highlighting them in the context of what impact it may have on the space. Oncothyreon ($ONTY) presented data (actually their partner Merck KGaA) at the American Society of Hematology on Stimuvax.

Stimuvax is a cancer vaccine that targets the MUC-1 antigen (same one that Prima's CVAC targets). The data presented was from the phase 2 trial in Multiple Myeloma (MM). Two phase 3 trials are now ongoing:

• Lung cancer "START" trial, and
• "INSPIRE" (Asian patients).
  

The Phase 2 data presented in Multiple Myeloma looks early but encouraging. The next big data point that investors are watching is the interim look (the second one) for the P3 trial, which should happen in Q3-2012.

What investors may not realize is that PrimaBioMed (ASX: PRR) is also targeting the MUC-1 antigen but using sensitized dendritic cells (just as Dendreon has done successfully with Provenge). PrimaBioMed CEO Martin Rogers has been working on listing this Aussie stock on a US exchange. We think watching Oncothyreon and its impact on PrimaBioMed will be an important connection for investors to watch. See Prima BioMed @ ProActive.