The TurnAround in Dendrion ? DNDN Presents at JP Morgan in SFO

Last week Dendreon NASDAQ: DNDN reported stronger than expected sales for Provenge sales at $82 Million generally above "street" consensus expectations. The company has a strong cash balance (approx. $600M) to fund the Provenge launch through to profitability. The stock rallied sharply starting the week at $8 and closing north of $12. This sets the stage for continued expansion for Dendrion and is welcome news for earlier stage cancer immune based therapies in development.

This week the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference begins in San Fransico, Monday through Thursday. Healthcare companies from all over the world converge for a week in meetings with sell side analysts, bankers and institutional portfolio managers.

We have been highlighting the Alliance for Regenerative Medicine (ARM) efforts as an industry group to highlight the progress that cell based companies have made over the past decade. To this end, ARM has organized a two day mini-conference (we have previously posted the schedule). What's special about the ARM event is that the companies will all present in a panels style format.

Industry leaders like Dendrion (presenting on a panel Wed) will be alongside other earlier stage companies in their market niche such as Immunocellular (IMUC), Coronado (CNDO), PrimaBioMed (PRR.AX) as well as other players in the space. We believe this will be a great venue for investors to learn not only about where Dendrion may be going as a stock, but what's next in the cancer-immunotherapy space.

We will be present throughout the day and blogging on the various panels as we go through the motions of comparing and contrasting the various approaches of the companies. For example we are keenly focused to listen to the cardiology panel where industry leader MesoBlast (MSB) will present alongside NeoStem (Amorcyte-NBS), Athersys (ATHX) and Cytori (CYTX).  Baxter (BAX) will not be present for the panel but investors should take note of their progress (P3 trial in cardiac ischemia).

We believe the next major breakthroughs on the regen side will likely be found in the cardiology space.

Celladon is focused in Heart Failure...gets Fast Track Designation (private)

Cell Therapy fan's know that on the Regenerative Medicine front the next major breakthrough may very well be in cardiovascular medicine. Several companies are in trials now with a wide range of cell therapies to stabilize failing hearts. What caught our eye today is news that private biotech company Celladon received fast track designation for Mydicar.

Celladon's MYDICAR® is a genetically targeted enzyme replacement therapy that is designed to restore functional levels of "SERCA2a", (a regulator of calcium cycling and contractility). In other words, this enzyme is required for the heart to beat properly and in patients whose heart is failing leading the enzyme levels to decline. MYDICAR® is a gene that is delivered using a recombinant adeno-associated virus (AAV) as the vector. This is really high tech gene therapy at a cellular level.

So what does this have to do with regenerative cell therapy ?

The phase 2 trial results (previously announced) showed the therapy met its primary safety and efficacy endpoints at 6 months for high dose MYDICAR® versus placebo. Additionally, 12 months after receiving a single infusion of MYDICAR®, patients treated with the highest dose versus placebo had an 88% risk reduction (Hazard Ratio = 0.12, P=0.003) of major cardiovascular events such as death, or a need for a left ventricular assist device (LVAD), cardiac transplant, or episodes of worsening heart failure and the related heart failure hospitalizations.

So now we are starting to see cardiac trials with therapies that are reporting a preservation of heart function and risk reduction as the therapeutic goals. We believe that in the cell therapy space, we will see a host of therapies developed along these same lines. We would take note on the autologous side of Baxter (P3) trial, NeoStem (NBS) (P2) trial, Aastrom (P2) and on the allogeneic side, MesoBlast (MSB), Cytori (CYTX), Athersys (ATHX), and others.

Critical Limb Ischemia (CLI) gets a lot of attention with Aastrom (ASTM), PluriStem (PSTI) and Aldagen (private) all talking about the potential but investors have not been convinced. We would watch closely the developments on the cardiac side as the unmet medical need here remains large. 

Why? The historical data sets and trial designs are well understood, so the feasibility of a successful trial based on what's known about the space is positive. News like Celladon, and a close examination of the trial goals bode well for the space.

Cell Therapy - Is there value for stock market investors?

The cell therapy space has been hit hard over the past year triggered by a perfect storm of events from the macro-economic environment:

• Biotechnology has come under pressure, where investors fear not only dilution but extinction; and
• Companies in the Small-Cap Biotech space often operate with a years worth of cash, and this has made investors nervious.

We have been down this road in the past, can anybody say Y2K?

Dendreon's (NASDAQ: DNDN) rise became the rallying cry for investors so its subsequent plunge became the proof for the bears that cell therapy just doesn't work. Both examples are in our opinion false. Provenge, like so many biotech products before it, is the first in a new therapeutic category. We lived through the monoclonal antibodies in the 90's, and then the HIV market in Y2K. Most recently the success of the nucleosides (Pharmasset) is now destined to be acquired by Gilead (GILD). We hope our followers saw the run up in Inhibitex (INHX) that resulted.

What's the connection? A pattern has emerged, and Provenge is not just a cell therapy but the first of a cell based approach to immunology/cancer. The follow-on products will be better. Take a look at the work that PrimaBioMed (ASX: PRR) is doing or even better, Coronado (OTCBB: CNDO) (which we have been following for some time).

What we want to begin discussing today is cell therapy on the regenerative medicine side of the equation. Oncology has always had tough hurdles but on the regenerative side the unmet medical need is often just as great, in fact, greater in some places. 

No one yet has been able to explain Mesoblast (MSB-Australia) to us but Cephalon and now Teva are in partnership and the stock has a market cap approaching $2 billion. This is an allogenic (other peoples cells) model, which pharma likes. It is the so called pills in a bottle model. Peer companies include Pluristem (PSTI) and Athersys (ATHX), at much lower valuations ($100 million or lower). On the autlogous side no one seems to be paying any attention to NeoStem (AMEX: NBS). This company acquired Progenitor Cell Therapy the contract manufacturing company that worked on Provenge and today is working with many of the cell therapy companies we are following.

Can an autlogous model work?  Baxter thinks so, and has been highlighting their autlogous cells for cardiac ischemia. Interesting because the Baxter product is very similar to the NeoStem product - both are CD34+ cells with some differences. NeoStem is begining their Phase 2 trial for a cell therapy that promises to stabilze failing hearts after a heart attack.

We recently attended the Stem Cell Therapy on the Mesa conference, and we were "blown away" with the number of products in clinical trials. We saw companies from all over the world - some had revenues with approved products, and others had great data and proof of concept with thereapies that can work for everything from cardiovascular disease to healing damaged muscles and tendons.

Going Forward: We will be actively following the "Cell Therapy Space" now. That means we will be watching the developments on two fronts:

• Oncology/Immunology side, and
• Regenerative Medicine side.

We will be commenting on the trials, the news developments in the space, the competitive landscape, talking with managment, and posting our articles on where we believe the ground breaking science, product profiles, and catalysts lie that can trigger the next paradigm shift in the space.

Remember, Lipitor is going to leave a big hole in Pfizer's pipleine as it goes generic. Pharma and Biotech have to act. Early signs abound that cell therapies are no longer a case of if, but when, and the answer to that is tied to clinical trials, which represent a highly defined process.